His putter, considered a liability in the wake of the anchoring ban, is now a weapon. Bergers not long by Tour standards, but he is accurate, and hes a killer around the greens, which will be essential at the new-look Southern Hills with its slick, difficult-to-hit surfaces. Woods is projected under 10% owned. There are a few solid, mid-tier values on this week's card. We got it all, chickens, goats, you name it. Being a big hitter will help on this course, but having a great approach game will be the key to winning the Wanamaker trophy. Hatton ranks ninth in "Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green" and 20th in "Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee." Sleeper pick: Y.E. Hovland, like Thomas, has one weaker portion of his game, and that is his one-putt percentage. To-win: Will Zalatoris, +3,300. The form is there, and by all accounts, the course fit is there. For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. Below, we search for value in the odds and target five sleepers and long-shot picks to win the 2021 PGA Championship. PGA Tour Rising Stars: 6 Pro Golfers to Watch in 2023. His putting remains a concern, but thats also why hes 33-1. It features long par 3s and par 4s, thick and penal rough, and extremely firm and fast greens. Golfers should expect tough conditions and high winds this week. Recent PGA Champions 4. In fact, the other eight players who fit that criteria are all among the favorites this week and cant be found higher than roughly 25-1. Furthermore, hes been a consistent gainer with his around-the-green play, even if hes not elite in that area. ?Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! Up to $1,250 on Caesars. Who will win the PGA Championship in 2022? Shop around because I was still seeing some +2000's out there. Rory McIlroy 8. The first major on the 2022 PGA Tour was won by Scottie Scheffler. Also, the smartest picker I know has been crowing about Young for months. Scheffler not only had an impressive practice round at Southern Hills recently, he also says its one of his favorite courses. This number jumps off the board a bit, since it doesnt mesh with Goochs resume entering the PGA Championship. "They're just covering their ass and saying everything that the PGA Tour basically has trained them to say", "Playing the cutline is one of the toughest things in golf. Obviously, well need a hot week with the putter. There also aren't as many trees narrowing angles to the fairway and hole. I dont necessarily love Homa at +5000 (FanDuels current offering) or +6600 (BetMGM), but all the way at +8000, hes worthy of a look. . Since the 2022 FedEx Cup season opened in October, Scott has two top tens on the PGA Tour, two top 10s on the DP World Tour in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and only missed one cut in 13 starts (at the wind-plagued PLAYERS Championship). He's also shown that he can play with the big boys and has three other top-25 finishes in 2021, including finishing 18th at The Masters. He finished in a tie for third the following year but has not factored in a major since. The biggest reason I am sprinkling on Fleetwood this week is his success on coastal- and links-style courses. All of these things put together should bode well for the European golfers who are used to playing on these courses and in these conditions. Lets dig in and find some winners! He won the 2007 PGA at Southern Hills. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. The PGA Championship returns to Kiawah Island's Ocean Course for a second time, nine years after Rory McIlroy's dominant eight-shot victory at the famed Pete Dye design. Wagering on golf always seems to come down to the wire, which is why Ive become hooked. Jacob Camenker is a senior content producer at The Sporting News. ), PGA Tour golfers aren't the only ones who can make some starting next Thursday. Henley ranks fifth in the field in approach and 20th around the green. America East Tournament Odds: Vermont To Claim Consecutive Titles. Noren rounded out his AT&T Byron Nelson effort with an 8-under 64 and quietly added to what has been a fantastic season. He was lurking at Bellerive in 2018 and Bethpage Black in 2019, so I don't see why he can't at Southern Hills in 2022. Over the last 20 rounds, Varner is seventh in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Hes a sleeper only because of the odds. Which one is the best for you? Over the last three months, Woodland ranks inside the top 20 of this PGA Championship field in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green. March 8, 2022 6:50 pm ET The PGA Tour is in Ponta Vedra Beach, Florida, for one of, if not the, biggest non-major of the year. But again, it was a good time off, but definitely enjoyed being out here more.. Lastly, the RickRunGood Tournament Predictor also loves him at these odds and has him listed as the No. In his 10 starts since the Ryder Cup, Cantlay has a win and six top-10s. As the elevated events have proven thus far in 2023, these loaded fields do not bode well for the outright prospects of longshots. Its a long shot, but this is a dice roll I feel good about taking. Mike McClure has locked in his sleepers and PGA one and done golf picks this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 at Bay Hill. With Jon Rahm, the world No. $1,200 in Bonus Bets. Feb. 13, 2022; Scottsdale Arizona, USA; Chris Kirk tees off on the 16th hole during the final round of the WM Phoenix Open. Defending champion Collin Morikawa's betting odds are listed at +2800. Im not going to stand here and pretend Im not terrified of Luke Lists putting prospects this week, considering he has now gone 18 consecutive events since he last gained on the greens. He earned his first green jacket via a Masters win that was virtually wire-to-wire. Hovland comes both with a little more risk and a bit more value. Noren is not the Oklahoma State player that everyone would expect to win this week, but his game fits this course well and he excels in the wind. Finding a mix of top-tier golfers and low-priced sleepers is the key to daily fantasy golf. Ohio Sports Betting Promos: Michigan State Spartans OSU Buckeyes Odds. He won at Mayakoba and recorded two straight top-five place finishes in the early spring. That will make strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) one of the most important metrics for evaluating this field. Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Cameron Young plays his shot on the 12th hole during the first round of the RBC Heritage at Harbor Town Golf Links on April 14, 2022, in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. A feast or famine player, Champ has been flashing some strong form lately. The value is just too good to pass up. Stellar short games will be a must, and few players are better around the greens than Berger. Are they right? Leish has fallen off a bit since his early-season form, and hes missed the past three PGA cuts. Currently projected near 10% owned, Zalatoris burned many last week. The 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills is just a few days from getting underway. His recent success has him leading the world in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 30 days. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided. If there's any golfer in the world who can flip the switch and dominate, it's Johnson. No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000. The big concern would be driving accuracy as that could get him in trouble. Still, if Fitzpatrick can get hot with the putter and if Berger can get a bit more distance in the Oklahoma heat, both could make a run at the top spot on the leaderboard. He will win a major, and likely soon. Think like a pro, bet like a pro, win like a pro. That makes Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance of premium importance. Only competitors with 100-1 or better odds are listed. If any of them are in the running come Sunday, I will live bet and hedge for a little pizza money to make sure I come out on top. Hes trending: Over his past three events, he tied for 10th at the Masters, tied for sixth at the Mexico Open, and tied for 38th at last weeks Byron Nelson. 1. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. Betting him as a top-10 finisher at +650 oddscould also be a profitable strategy. For just $0.83/month, get an ad-free experience and access to RotoBaller's VIP Discord Chat Community, If you can't subscribe, please consider turning off your adblocker for RotoBaller.com. Pictured: Max Homa. You can too! Lee must be thinking about packing up his family and moving to Dallas full time. 13 in the Power Rankings for The Honda Classic, he was comfortably inside the top 10 entering the final round before falling into a five-way tie for 21st with a Sunday 73. Among all the betting favorites, there are several names further down the odds list you should keep an eye on this week in Oklahoma. Southern Hills is arather long course. Wind proved a decisive factor in the 2022 outcome of the Arnold Palmer and should be monitored closely ahead of tee off on Thursday. ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS. Once you get past the favorites, these PGA Championship dark horse picks have long odds but a real sleeper chance to win at Southern Hills. Can he repeat his success at the tour's next major, the 2022 PGA Championship? Not much else to this pick, sometimes you just have to take the hot hand (hes also extremely talented in every facet of the game, so that helps). That makes him an intriguing long shot. He has five titles to his name, one more than Tiger Woods' four. More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks. If you are stacking an AM/PM tee time this week, it could also be advantageous to make PM/AM stacks as well. Speaking of good ball-strikers and sketchy putters: Keegan Bradley! To-win: Cameron Smith, +2,000. Hes finished in the top 20 in four out of his past five starts and is fifthin "Strokes Gained: Total" over his past 24 rounds. Top 100 Courses in the U.S.: GOLFs all-new 2022-23 ranking is here! The 2007 PGA Championship was also at Southern Hills CC, with Tiger Woods winning his 13th major. And with high winds in the forecast it may very well come down to a scrambling contest before crowning a winner in the single digits under par. The list of top performers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational reads like a list of major champions and annual major contenders. Stats pulled across Last 24 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Sleeper pick: Cameron Champ, +10,000. So, its a week in which players will need to enter in polished tee-to-green form in order to contend. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. He made the most birdies (22) of any player at Augusta National, and as late at the 11th hole on Masters Sunday, the Aussie was in position to give Scheffler a run for the green jacket. It's the city in which two best moments in golf have come - namely, winning the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson and then successfully defending his crown just this past week. In his two starts at major championships, Higgs has finished in the top 15. Check out some of the sleepers in the 2022 PGA Championship below. For now, well assume equal playing conditions for the full field when determining top value plays until more information becomes available on tee times and Thursday/Friday weather reports. Justly so, as he's playing terrific golf, finishing third in each of his past two events. Champ: Were in Houston, Texas. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in ball striking and first in strokes gained approach. So how is the worlds 79th ranked player 250/1 this week? He ranks top-20 in SG:APR, one-putt percentage and scrambling from the rough, so he should be a safe bet to remain in contention this week. So with that, its no surprise that I have Rory McIlroy as my outright pick to win the 2022 PGA Championship along with sprinkles on guys like Hideki Matsuyama and Shane Lowry. Maybe. The other is Adam Scott, who finished T12 here in 2007 and continues to play great golf. This year's venue, Southern Hills Country Club, will play no favorites -- and neither will we as we outline potential candidates to follow in the footsteps of Yang and company. Were about to have a little bit more. The combination of course familiarity and recent play would make Scott a potent threat if his putter gets extra hot this week. Note:All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. Click here to make your PGA picks The PGA Championship features a stacked field of golfers that will compete at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Okla. Scheffler, the No. He ranks top 40 in this field in approach, around the green, putting, sand saves, bogey avoidance and three-putt avoidance. Click on odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. Over those 12 rounds, hes shot over par just once a three-over 75 during the second round at Augusta. This site .css-110721q{color:#0079F0;}contains commercial content. Count me among those who believe he has as good a chance as anyone to win this weeks PGA Championship at Southern Hills. Subsequently, we wouldnt be doing our due diligence if we didnt take a hard look at PGA Championship dark horse picks and sleepers that have the game to win this week. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. No golfer has won the PGA Championship more than Jack Nicklaus. Stars are everywhere on the leaderboard heading into the weekend at Bay Hill. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. For +12,500, I will bet that we see flashes of 2020 Wolff at Southern Hills. Aside from digging into the data at the RickRunGood.com database and a couple of other models, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value plays, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into an event. In 2018, he finished secondat both the Open Championship and at the U.S. Open. It's Major week, and the highly anticipated PGA Championship is finally here! All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. While there is a gulf of differences between the skills and mindset needed to win a major title and winning at your average PGA TOUR stop, Homas game should fit both on paper. Over the last 24 rounds, Hatton ranks third in the field in strokes gained short-game. Up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets. TIL Y.E. Gooch has the game to contend this week and certainly offers value at a number this high. Its just that the bookmakers dont over at BetMGM, Champs well down the board, at 150-1 to win. You can reach out to him about any of these topics his stories, his game or his beers at nick.piastowski@golf.com. He has had hot putting streaks before too, so perhaps he can find his stroke at the right time in Tulsa. Champ: We have cattle, we have horses. Previewing the 2023 Puerto Rico Open with our top picks based on the best PGA Tour odds. Getting one of the best ball strikers on tour, who is familiar with the course, under 10% owned may just be too lucrative to pass up. Now lets dig into some longshots.. Hoffman will assuredly not find himself on my outright card this week. There are a lot of ways to play your golf gambling dollar. His highest finish was a T-4 in 2018. Phil Mickelsonis not in the field for the first time since 1992. Another positive for Henley is that he ranks seventh in the field in strokes gained around the green. His driver is a skill that will translate. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. Hes long enough, accurate enough and consistent enough. Like I said, its my little escape from all this., Sounds lovely. Scheffler has knocked Jordan Spieth off the Texas golf throne with his stellar play these past few months. His victory at the Wells Fargo was his second of the season, as he took home the hardware at the season opener, the Fortinet Championship. That said, the presence of these elites has pushed quality players to a discounted odds range, creating some appealing value if any of the elites falter. PGA Splits 101(great Twitter follow) used true "Strokes Gained" data from Data Golf, adjusted for field strength, and saw that Morikawa is the best ball-striker at the PGA Championship over the past 20 rounds. There's no place like home, and K.H. I worry this course might be a little too long for him, but he's too good to leave off the card. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy are among the top golfers expected to have success at Southern Hills CC, but here are three sleepers who could be making even louder noises there. Rahm is fresh off a win at the Mexico Open and has logged a top-13 finish in three of his last four appearances at the PGA Championship. Gambling problem? Like what you read today? The result marks Kirk's . So, good putters should fare well on this course. Then again, Im searching for value at a major. I know it's going to be tough for Morikawa to win this event in back-to-back years, but I can't resist. Is it a stretch? BMW Championship picks 2022: Top 10s Caddie: Mito Pereira (+750, Bet365) He's got the length and the iron play to contend here, so a positive putting week and you're in business at these. He also has two Tour victories (Puerto Rico Open & Mayakoba Classic) on paspalum. John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. Harry Higgs has not had anywhere close to the success that Max Homa has found on TOUR, especially this year. But, with three top-20 finishes over five career Arnold Palmer Invitational appearances, he can still be an active contributor in DraftKings lineups. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports. Sleeper pick: Richard Bland, +50,000. He ranks second on the tour in SG:OTT and ninth in one-putt percentage. Looking at the course, the putting grass thats going to be used is called paspalum, which is popular on European tracks. If Zalatoris remains near 10% is a great play. Spieths finishes since the Masters feature a win and a solo second, so his game is shaping up. Yeah, its our little oasis at home, and we love it. (And if youre looking to place any of these bets yourself, we teamed with BetMGM, and the online sports book is offering a new promotion: Make a risk-free bet up to $1,000. PGA Championship sleepers One sleeper McClure is targeting this week at Southern Hills is Cameron Young, who is a massive 80-1 long shot at Caesars. Big Shot Bob and another expert contact hitter are among Paulie's longshot options for Southern Hills and the 2022 PGA. Golfers should expect tough conditions and high winds this week. The same can be said of Young. To-win: Jordan Spieth, +1,800. As for Thomas, he has had six top-10 finishes in competitions since January. Many notable contenders are in peak form right now and leading the charge in the PGA standings. Berger, he said, is as impressive as anybody.. 2nd Chance Bet up to $500. But the truth of the matter is that favorites dont always win golf tournaments. Min Woo Lee ($6,700) - When Min Woo Lee begin playing events on the PGA Tour he brought some hype. He also ranks ninth in "Driving Distance" and in the top 30 of several other key metrics. Fitzpatrick is an excellent player from tee to green but ranks 47th in one-putt percentage. The 30-year-old Englishmen has underperformed this year for how well he has played. Rose finished T12 the last time the PGA Championship was contested at Southern Hills, in 2007. This course may remind Leishman a bit of some of his favorite courses back home in Australia, as it will feature firm fairways, slopey greens, heavy winds, lots of bunkers and shaved runoffs all around the greens. By our count, 44 of the world's top-50 players will make the trip to Orlando - including all 13 winners of PGA TOUR events so far this term. After missing the weekend at the Honda, he went on a run of five straight T-22 or better finishes in stroke-play events (including at T-14 at Augusta). 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