The macroscale hydrologic model used in the CBCCSP is the VIC model (Cherkauer & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Liang, Lettenmaier, Wood, & Burges, Citation1994) implemented at 1/16 degree resolution. Impacts assessments from the WACCIA played a central role in these planning activities, but updated and extended data from the CBCCSP also materially supported these efforts. Additional products such as bias-adjusted inflow sequences for specific reservoir operations models are also included. As noted above, the study also supports planning efforts over a wide range of geographic scales. Figure 10 shows a map of Q100 ratios (future Q100 to historical Q100) for 297 river locations and a scatterplot of the Q100 ratio as a function of winter temperature regime in each basin. Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page By that same year, a large number of natural resources management agencies in the US federal system (e.g., the USFS, USNPS, USBR, USFWS, FERC, FEMA, NMFS) were actively engaged in educating and training their upper-level leadership and staff about climate change and were attempting to acquire appropriate data and information to support long-term planning and develop long-term climate change adaptation strategies. Those who wish to do additional post-processing of the existing VIC data can access the archived model output. Based on these substantial differences in hydrologic impacts it is difficult to escape the conclusion that management of water resources in the Canadian portions of the basin will play a crucial role in the ability of US water managers to adapt to more substantial changes in streamflow timing and summer low flows in the United States. In 2021, these livestock operations alone accounted for 75% of deforestation on public lands, according to a study by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).. The SRES A1B and B1 GHG emissions scenarios (Nakienovi et al. The primary activities and objectives of the RMJOC studies are described in the Executive Summary of the project report (US Department of the Interior, Citation2012): The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) collaborated to adopt climate change and hydrology datasets for their longer-term planning activities in the ColumbiaSnake River Basin (CSRB). A calibrated 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution implementation of the VIC hydrologic model over the Columbia River basin was used to produce historical simulations and 77 future hydrologic projections associated with three different statistical downscaling methods and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s). Fig. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. The calibrated CBCCSP VIC model was modified by WSU by integrating it with a sophisticated crop model (CropSyst; Stckle, Donatelli, & Nelson, Citation2003) that, among other functions, estimates crop water demand. Climatic Change 113:499-524. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). Key products from the study include detailed summary data for about 300 river sites in the PNW and monthly GIS products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. The PRISM data for Canada were interpolated to 30 arc-second resolution data from a 2.5 arc-minute (approximately 4km) product and were statistically adjusted to remove the bias associated with the different time period (19611990 means for the 4km product). The changes in the importance of snow in some areas of the United States are particularly striking. Daily and monthly average streamflow for all projections listed in Table 1 and, where possible, daily and monthly bias-corrected streamflow values. Twenty-one daily time-step output variables were archived for the VIC simulations (Table 2). Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate change Date: February 10, 2021 Source: Oregon State University Summary: The Columbia River basin will see an increase. (*Modified flows are essentially naturalized flows with a consistent level of consumptive demand for water supply subtracted for the entire time series.). Source: NOAA Fisheries. These hydrologic studies support detailed assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on irrigation and important crops in WA (Yorgey et al., Citation2011), which in turn will inform decisions regarding best use of funding to improve water supply benefits in WA under climate change. The most sensitive basins are mixed-rain-and-snow basins. #! O Open File Report SW 02-002. These lands are those without any sort of status that provides government protection, such as an indigenous territory, or that have not . This is likely because soil moisture is higher in summer west of the Cascade Range and evapotranspiration is mostly energy limited, whereas east of the mountains the late summer soil moisture is already very low in the current climate and increasing evapotranspiration does not result in much additional soil moisture stress. The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world. Each of these methods has its specific advantages and limitations (as discussed in detail in Hamlet et al., 2010a); however, the HD method combines several important strengths of the CD and BCSD methods and was developed specifically to support the prediction of daily hydrologic extremes (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Fine-scale calibration of the model to compensate for such errors, although technically feasible, is of questionable utility, because it essentially ensures that the model is getting something closer to the right answer for the wrong reasons, which in turn has the potential to distort the sensitivity of the model to changing future conditions (Bennett, Werner, & Schnorbus, Citation2012). Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. Note the relative insensitivity of SWE to warming in the coldest, and most heavily snowmelt-dominant, areas in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia in comparison with the rest of the domain. Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. The study was also unique in that this was the first time that these agencies had run their own reservoir operation models to assess climate change impacts in the CRB, an element of the study design which greatly increased the impact of the study conclusions in the agencies involved. For climate change studies in the western United States where snow is an important element of the hydrologic cycle, the model's use of a sophisticated energy-balance snow model, which incorporates important effects on snow accumulation and melt associated with vegetation canopy (Andreadis, Storck, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009) has been a notable advantage. The CBCCSP (and extensions over the west) has greatly reduced the costs of these types of studies by supplying (at essentially no cost) a wide range of high-quality hydrologic scenarios as a foundation for further work. The Assessment will result in a better understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the eight components identified in SECURE in the Columbia River Basin. These products are available for all 77 climate scenarios listed in Table 1, as well as for the historical simulation. 2010. About 50 of the 80 sites evaluated show monthly NSE scores greater than or equal to approximately 0.7 (good to excellent fit). Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). These approaches are also useful for avoiding biases in the streamflow simulations that result from systematic errors in gridded precipitation or temperature data. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakienovi et al. But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. Originating in British Columbia, it flows 1,214 miles to the Pacific Ocean near Astoria, Oregon. Most of the fundamental details regarding the VIC implementation used in this study are covered by Elsner et al. Daily streamflow data from the CD and HD downscaling methods are first processed to extract the peak daily flow in each water year of the simulations (91 years). For the future scenarios, the range of the projections (pink shading) is plotted. Fig. In particular, it is clear that Canada will have not only about 50% of the reservoir storage in the CRB (Hamlet, Citation2003) but also an increasingly dominant portion of the natural water storage as snowpack in the future. This advance through the native forest has been driven, primarily, by cattle ranching. To explore how much the model simulations might be improved by additional fine-scale calibration, we also recalibrated three additional smaller sites within the Pend Oreille River basin. The WDOE was also directed to incorporate climate change explicitly in these comprehensive assessment efforts. The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. Starting from these parameter sets, an additional large-scale calibration was performed during the CBCCSP to improve model performance in reproducing historical streamflow. To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. Casola, J. H., Kay, J. E., Snover, A. K., Norheim, R. A., Binder, L. C. W., & the Climate Impacts Group. For example, to support academic or agency researchers with their own hydrologic modelling capability, the study provides projections of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and humidity and a calibrated VIC hydrologic model implementation. Source: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. A subsequent study in the Skagit River basin (Lee and Hamlet, unpublished manuscript) has demonstrated that substantial improvements in the simulation of high flow extremes can be achieved by calibrating the routing model, but it is not yet clear whether these conclusions can be generalized to other areas of the domain. Lows in the lower 50s. A 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon. Over the last several years, the USFS and USFWS have engaged with the CIG to produce a set of initial climate change hydrologic scenarios over much of the west using a common methodology intended to support landscape-scale assessment of climate change impacts (Littell et al., Citation2011). Dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. Right panel: Historical and projected future watershed classification (rain-dominant, transitional (mixed-rain-and-snow), snow-dominant) for 10-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds, based on the long-term mean of the SWE2PR for each watershed. Fig. An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results. The presence of glaciers in Canada (not included in the CBCCSP simulations) may further exacerbate the discrepancies between impacts to summer flows in the United States and Canada in late summer (Werner et al., Citation2013). Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (Daly et al., Extreme daily high flow value with a 20-year recurrence interval (20-year flood), Extreme daily high flow value with a 50-year recurrence interval (50-year flood), Extreme daily high flow value with a 100-year recurrence interval (100-year flood), River Management Joint Operating Committee. The largest reductions in low flows occur west of the Cascade Range in the simulations. Both floods (Q100) and extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) increase in intensity for most of the river sites simulated. Fig. Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. In other words, dry areas east of the Cascade Range have less base-flow potential to lose with increasing evapotranspiration and loss of summer precipitation because the soil moisture is already at very low levels in late summer. Daily and monthly streamflow for each streamflow site are provided in two formats: a) raw VIC simulations, and b) bias-adjusted simulations. 2012. All of the meteorological forcing data, except wind speed, are reproduced in the output files produced by the hydrologic model. 12 Changes in monthly mean total column soil moisture (OctoberSeptember) for three representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (centre), and Yakima River at Parker (right). Get the forecast for today, tonight & tomorrow's weather for Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso, Brazil. 4 Flow chart illustrating the post-processing steps used to produce the various hydrologic products served on the study website. The data is accessible for decision makers, researchers, students, professionals and the public. Statistics for hydrologic extreme events (as discussed above) are presented in a different format, shown in Fig. Blue traces show monthly averages for historical conditions; the pink bands show the range of projected change associated with each scenario and future time period; the red lines show the average of the future ensemble. Three base flow parameters (Ds max, Ds, Ws) associated with the non-linear baseflow curve from the third soil layer (Liang et al., Citation1994) were used to calibrate the model. RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. Bias-corrected streamflow values are useful in water planning studies, especially for providing inputs to reservoir operations models that are calibrated on a particular naturalized or modified flow dataset (e.g., Hamlet, Lee, et al., Citation2010b; NWPCC, Citation2005; Vano et al., Citation2010). To select an appropriate group of specific streamflow locations to include in the study to meet these diverse needs, the primary funding agencies for the study and several other key water management agencies in the region (MDNR, IDWR, USBR, and USACE) were asked to submit prioritized lists of streamflow locations. Hamlet, and S.-Y. Thanks to Shrad Shukla, at the UW for 1/16 degree VIC model calibration over the Yakima basin. Figure 1. This extreme scenario, however, was only run by a few GCMs, which ultimately limits the ability to show consistent ranges of outcomes for each emissions scenario. Figure 1 shows a map of the approximately 300 streamflow locations that were ultimately compiled from these lists for inclusion in the study (a spreadsheet listing these sites is available on the CBCCSP website (CIG, Citation2013a)). Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower, Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State, Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals, Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River basin, Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America, Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S, Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S, Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western U.S, An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature, Optimized flood control in the Columbia River basin for a global warming scenario, Methodology for developing flood rule curves conditioned on El Nio-Southern Oscillation classification, Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario, Improving water resources system performance through long-range climate forecasts: The Pacific Northwest experience (Chapter 7), Water resources implications of global warming, a U.S. regional perspective, Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin, A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. Nous avons implment une rsolution latitudelongitude calibre 1/16 de degr dans le modle capacit d'infiltration variable (VIC) et avons appliqu dans le modle bassin du fleuve Columbia pour produire des simulations historiques et 77 projections hydrologiques futures correspondant trois mthodes de rduction dchelle statistique et trois priodes futures (les dcennies 2020, 2040 et 2080). 'High Uncertainty' is indicated when Mahalanobis Distance is >1. Fig. Lee. However, our goal in this case was not to reduce the range of uncertainty by selecting a smaller group of GCMs. Interactive influences of climate change and agriculture on aquatic habitat in a Pacific Northwestern watershed, PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, River Bed Elevation Variability Reflects Sediment Supply, Rather Than Peak Flows, in the Uplands of Washington State, Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? At the other extreme, for those without any hydrologic modelling or post-processing capability the study provides a wide range of hydrologic products that can be used without any expertise in the preceding steps. Yakima River Basin Study This is a good example of the use of the study data to support relatively fine-scale planning needs. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) was conceived as a comprehensive hydrologic database to support climate change planning, impacts assessment, and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) by a diverse user community with varying technical capacity over a wide range of spatial scales. For the BCSD runs (for which the ability to capture key elements of the region's climate variability is arguably even more important to the outcomes) the projections based on the seven highest ranked GCMs (Table 1) were selected for each emissions scenario. These annual peak daily flows are then ranked and assigned a quantile value using an unbiased quantile estimator based on the method of Cunane (Stedinger, Vogel, & Foufoula-Georgiou, Citation1993). Citation2000) were selected as the basis for the study because they provide a) a wide range of plausible outcomes while also reflecting some potential GHG mitigation by the end of the twenty-first century, and b) most of the approximately 20 GCM projections associated with the CMIP3 archived runs from both emission scenarios (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Dave Rodenhuis, Markus Schnorbus, Arelia Werner, and Katrina Bennett at PCIC at the University of Victoria, British Columbia, also provided in-kind support and funding for collaborative research which contributed materially to this project. Thus, each site is bias-corrected using either naturalized or modified flow but not both. Act relating to state agency climate leadership, S. 5560, 61st Legislature (WA 2009). One of the first major efforts of CIG in this area was focused on the preparation of a detailed and comprehensive regional assessment report for the PNW for the 1999 National Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in the United States (ultimately published as Mote et al., Citation2003). Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. The USFS and USFWS studies have supported a number of high-visibility ecosystem studies, including assessment of the impacts of changing snowpack on wolverine populations (McKelvey et al., Citation2011) and subsequent proposed ESA listing of wolverine populations, and comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts to trout species over the west (Wenger et al., Citation2011). The CBCCSP, in particular, provided access to additional scenarios and downscaling methods that provided a range of hydrologic outcomes associated with uncertainty in the climate projections, which the WACCIA assessments largely did not. 11 Changes in 7Q10 for 297 river locations expressed as a ratio of 7Q10 for the future period to 7Q10 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods, by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. 95 0 obj <> endobj The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America. These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. Special thanks to Kurt Unger and Ken Slattery, who were the primary architects of the CBCCSP at WDOE. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page. Because of space limitations, we will not be able to cover these alternative modelling efforts in this paper. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). Did you know that with a free Taylor & Francis Online account you can gain access to the following benefits? The largest changes in flood risk are simulated in mixed-rain-and-snow basins. Click the download link to get the current station data. 8) experience little change in the shape of the monthly hydrograph because there is only occasional low-elevation snow in mid-winter in the twentieth century base case; therefore, there is relatively little sensitivity of monthly runoff timing to warming. For example, researchers who wish to run their own hydrologic models can do so by downloading the statistically downscaled meteorological forcings from the study. Basin topographic map and smoothed basin boundary at 1/16 degree resolution. (Citation2010). These spatial variations in the change in AET are broadly reflective of the dominant drivers of AET in each case. The Red Devils dropped the first game of the double-header 11-3 in five innings before . Rain dominant basins (DJF temperatures greater than 2C) show moderate increases in flood risk (primarily reflecting increasing storm intensity in the simulations), whereas snowmelt-dominant basins that currently flood in June show relatively little change in flood risk. Strong bias in the simulations is commonly caused by precipitation errors (too much or too little annual precipitation), or in some cases by substantial errors in base flows because of contributions from groundwater in the actual system, which are not simulated by the VIC model (Wenger, Luce, Hamlet, Isaak, & Neville, Citation2010). Confirming the sensitivity to warming demonstrated in earlier studies, the CBCCSP results show widespread reductions in the 1 April snowpack, and systematic reductions in the long-term average SWE2PR, a measure of the importance of snow in the hydrologic cycle (Fig. Thus, by selecting 10 GCM scenarios with good historical performance that also spanned the range of impacts, we effectively reduced the computational and storage requirements of the CBCCSP by approximately a factor of two. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. In relatively small basins (approximately 5001500km2), of which there are a substantial number included in the study, errors in meteorological driving data are often a strong determinant of simulation errors. These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. 0 The CBCCSP also included fine-scale hydrologic modelling using DHSVM (Wigmosta et al., Citation1994, Citation2002) in four pilot watersheds in the PNW. (For example, Dworshak and Milner are nested within the larger Ice Harbor sub-basin.). REVEL=Columbia River at Revelstoke Dam, CORRA=Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam, WANET=Pend Oreille River at Waneta Dam, LIBBY=Kootenai (Kootenay) River at Libby Dam, DWORS=N. Fork Clearwater River at Dworshak Dam, MILNE=Snake River at Milner, ICEHA=Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam, PRIRA=Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam, YAPAR=Yakima River at Parker, DALLE=Columbia River at The Dalles, OR, WILFA=Willamette River above falls at Oregon City. Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable resource which has dramatically reduced the cost of a number of high-visibility planning studies in the PNW, including the RMJOC water resources planning studies conducted by the BPA, USBR, and USACE, WSU integrated crop modelling and irrigation water demand studies under HB2860, the WA Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy, and west-wide extensions of the CBCCSP supported by the USFS and USFWS. A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate, A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain, Constructing retrospective gridded daily precipitation and temperature datasets for the conterminous United States, Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State, Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections, The role of transboundary agreements in the Columbia River basin: An integrated assessment in the context of historic development, climate, and evolving water policy, Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. The RMJOC is specifically dedicated to reviewing the practices, procedures, and processes of each agency to identify changes that could improve the overall efficiency of the operation and management of the Federal Columbia River Power System projects. La base de donnes du CBCCSP s'est avre une ressource publique prcieuse qui a permis de rduire normment les cots lis un certain nombre dtudes de haute visibilit dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et dans l'ouest des tatsUnis axes sur la coordination technique et la planification. Des accroissements gnraliss simuls de la rhumidification du sol en automne et en hiver dans les secteurs o l'accumulation de neige en hiver est importante (sous le climat actuel) appuient les hypothses de risque accru de glissement de terrain et de transport de sdiments durant l'hiver dans le futur. Although a number of pilot climate change studies have been carried out in the CRB in collaboration with various water management agencies in the past (e.g., NWPCC, Citation2005), the RMJOC study was something of a landmark in that it was the first time that the BPA, USBR, and USACE used climate change information in coordinated interagency planning exercises in the CRB. Figure 4 shows a flow chart of these post-processing steps. The study is intended to support research, vulnerability assessment, long-term planning, and climate change adaptation by the natural resources management community at a range of spatial scales, by users with varying levels of technical expertise. Although not as extreme as A1FI, the high-end A2 scenario was archived by most GCMs and could have been used in the CBCCSP in place of the A1B scenario. 7). About 15 sites in western Washington, outside the CRB, were also included in support of the 2009 WACCIA. A flight of geese circle over Moses Lake Saturday morning. Nakienovi, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., De Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S.,Dadi, Z. The CRBs cover an area over 87,000 miles 2, with an estimated volume of 50,000 miles 3, and cover about 36 percent of the state. The summary figures for water balance variables at each site have the same format, two examples of which are shown in Fig.

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